Curtin Call: January 2025
February 03, 2025
I recently had a chance to sit down with one of the longtime thought leaders in the economic development world.
For those of you who have been working in the economic development ecosystem for a while I imagine you are familiar with the research, writings and opinions of Joel Kotkin, described by The New York Times as “America’s Uber-Geographer.” For those of you not familiar with him, I encourage you to explore his books, articles, research and podcasts when you have a moment. His opinions are often counter and contrarian to his industry peers, which I always find of interest.
In addition to being a prolific writer and author, Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California where, once a year, I am invited to facilitate a course with him on the topic of marketing cities. It is definitely a highlight of my year.
In conjunction with our time together, I had a chance to ask Joel a few questions that were on my mind as I think about the future of cities and places.
Julie: You have written quite a bit about the rise of suburbs and the decline of downtowns over the years. What factors have contributed most significantly to the rise of the suburbs in recent decades?
Joel: Much of this is caused by the cities themselves. In their rush to densify and promote ‘social justice’, they have allowed crime to rise, infrastructure to fail (as we see in LA). They have refused to confront the decline of public education. People move into suburbs for safety, better schools, and space. Cities seem interested only in attracting non-families, the rich and the poor.
Julie: Let’s talk about the housing crisis. What counsel would you have for economic development leaders who need to provide affordable housing to low and middle-income workforce, yet continually have to address NIMBYISM and challenges around gentrification?
Joel: The urban decline and housing are closely related. In places like California where suburban development is widely opposed, policies favor development in core city areas but cannot create housing that is widely desired or affordable. People want out but the supply of affordable housing is limited, Cities either have to accept this or move to “social housing” much as we saw in the USSR and east Europe.
Julie: As vacancy rates in downtowns across the country continue to suffer due to hybrid work models, crime, real estate costs, and other factors, what are 2-3 pieces of advice you would give to city and urban leaders whose role is to attract investment and talent to urban centers.
Joel: Recognize that the role of cities, particularly cores, have changed. The new organizing principle will not be jobs but entertainment and residential development. Downtown, as HG Wells predicted well over a century ago, will become a place for “concourse and rendezvous”. But for that to work, you have to make public places safe and attractive.
Julie: With office vacancies on the rise in many urban areas, what innovative strategies do you think city leaders can explore to repurpose these vacant spaces?
Joel: Well, some could be turned into housing and perhaps some for artistic and artisan production. Co working space has a role here as well.
Julie: As you consider cities across the U.S. which ones stand out as being the most attractive for corporate investment and why?
Joel: If we are looking at regions, as opposed to core cities, I would look at Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, Nashville, Raleigh Durham, Charleston, Savannah, Salt Lake as places gaining jobs and people. Some midwestern cities, like Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City could become more attractive, there also may be many opportunities in smaller cities which could be attractive to both manufacturers and remote workers. There are many attractive areas, for example, in central Pennsylvania, parts of Appalachia, northeast Arkansas that could be attractive.
Julie: In your opinion, what impact will the new administration have on cities, their leadership, their economies and their workforce?
Joel: Expect the handouts for things like transit and social housing to go down. Cities will have to rely on themselves more than looking to DC for salvation. Long run this is a good thing.
Julie: Any other thoughts, opinions or advice you might share with economic developers across the country as they seek to attract investment, create jobs, retain and attract talent, and build sustainable, healthy economies?
Joel: Number one is infrastructure, notably for fires, public safety, water, power and roads. If cities want to compete, they have to step up their game in these areas.
